Have Belarusians already run out of solidarity?

Exactly five weeks ago, I felt more optimistic about the political future of Belarus than I usually do. That day, 16 October, had been declared a day of solidarity. At eight in the evening, lights were switched off and candles lit in people's homes. It was a new kind of protest action, one that drew many more participants than the usual demonstrations. The initiators of the candle manifestation claimed that at least a hundred thousand people had taken part. Witness accounts supported this claim, and I believe it was true.

Since the manifestation had been a relative success, it was to be repeated on the 16th of every month. That, too, seemed a good idea.

This week, 16 November came and passed. Now the solidarity day web site reported that no less than 300,000 people had taken part in the manifestation. I would consider that figure a cause for tremendous joy, if I believed in it. But I don't.

I have now asked four different people living in Minsk, where the density of lit candles had been the largest in October, about their impressions from 16 November. None of them had seen more than "what may have been one candle in a distant window although I am not sure". This is hardly the intended mirror in which, using the words of journalist and manifestation initiator Irina Khalip, "we will se that there are many of us." Instead, the political disengagement of the Belarusian population has again been demonstrated.

The day of solidarity has received quite a big resonance abroad. Vaclav Havel, Bronislaw Geremek, and a number of other prominent figures have voiced their support. Street gatherings with lit candles took place simultaneously in a number of European cities as well as in some parts of Belarus. Still, the manifestation seems a failure.

Why? One claim I have heard is that informational work has been poor, which, if true, is hardly a new problem for the Belarusian opposition. The anti-Lukashenko youth organisation Zubr says that 1,5 million people have been reached by information about the day of solidarity. I doubt that this is true. Apart from lack of information, however, the apparent drastic fall of participants between October and November begs another explanation. Probably, the relative success of the first manifestation was due to the appeal of something new and hitherto unknown. Reruns are less interesting.

I was also a bit surprised to hear about a possible third factor. Fear. A friend told me about a friend, who at eight o'clock had gone out on the street to look at his own house. As he didn't see any candles in the other apartments, he decided not to light one himself either. The person, who is a market vendor, didn't want to be noticed and risk trouble in his business.

Whatever the true number of participants, and whatever reasons may have caused the apparent decline of this manifestation, there will be a new chance on December 16.

PS. An interview with me (in Swedish) about Belarus can be heard on the web site of a student radio station in Lund. DS.