Could Belarus break out of Russia's gas empire?

-

After a prolonged conflict with Moscow, including a brief cut-off of Russian gas deliveries, Ukraine will now have to pay about four times more for this gas than it did before. Although Swedish reports have shown some confusion about the settlement that was signed this week, Moscow apparently got what it aimed for and inflicted serious economic injury on Ukraine. Some of our observers have described this as "punishment" because Russia is "angry" with the Orange Revolution that took place a year ago. Personally, I rather think it is a cold-blooded attempt to weaken the Ukrainian leadership prior to the parliamentary elections 26 March. In fact, during an appearance here in Stockholm a few months ago, this scenario was predicted by the odious Ukrainian opposition leader Viktor Yanukovich himself. And not entirely without enthusiasm, I should add.

-

Whether Russia's schemes will produce the desired result in the elections remains to be seen.

-

Meanwhile, those who want to see a future democratic Belarus should think about preventing similar threats to that country. Excluding Russia from the G8 seems a natural step, since the country is neither very rich nor democratic, and actually uses the economic power it has to suppress democracy. The EU should stop the building of the new gas pipeline that will take Russian gas directly to Germany through the Baltic Sea, circumventing the existing pipelines through Ukraine and Belarus and thereby increasing Moscow's leverage on those countries. And, frankly, why not turn Russia's tactic upon itself, and cut off gas imports when we are not happy about the Kremlin's political behaviour? There should be legal complications to that, but if the Russians can circumvent these - perhaps we could, too?

-

Care should also be taken not to support pro-Russian politicians within Belarus, even when they position themselves as opponents of Lukashenko. To the extent that Russia uses its gas weapon in the domestic political struggles of its neighbours, this is meaningful only as long as it has strong local proxies like Yanukovich. Remove such figures from the equation, and Russian aggression will no longer make sense. (My objections to the official visit arranged for this man, that I refer to above, was however at the time met with a total lack of understanding within the Swedish foreign policy establishment.)

-

Energy dependence on Russia is even greater in Belarus than in Ukraine. And although Lukashenko himself launched a new Concept of Energy Security in August, aiming at using more domestic peat for fuel and building the country's first nuclear power plant by 2015, Russian gas looks set to dominate for decades to come. Since a democratic breakthrough will hopefully happen sooner than that, much will depend on Moscow's calculations of political risks and advantages. In the end, however, the Belarusians' last defense against a Russian gas attack may be their own resolve to live in a democracy.