Dmitriy Pavlichenko enters the election campaign

-

I have been away this week, but it was still hard to miss one event. On Thursday, 2 March, the presidential candidate Aleksandr Kozulin uninvitedly tried to get into the All-Belarusian Congress, a huge propaganda event now staged for the third time by Lukashenko during his time as president. Instead of simply denying Kozulin entry and quietly but firmly showing him to the door, the following happened.

-

1. Kozulin gets beaten up by no one less than Dmitriy Pavlichenko, a police special forces colonel mostly known as the head of Lukashenko's death squad, and is taken to a police station.

-

2. Pavlichenko makes a statement about the beating to the press, saying that Kozulin had offended him and that he had therefore held a "man-to-man talk" with him.

-

3. In the police station, Kozulin smashes a portrait of Lukashenko.

-

4. Outside the police station, police apprehends some thirty of Kozulin's supporters and unprovocedly opens fire on a car with four of them inside.

-

5. All this gives Kozulin the best PR effect any alternative candidate to Lukashenko could ever imagine, both within and outside Belarus.

-

I have been negative about Kozulin ever since he showed up on the opposition scene a year ago, unexpectedly given the leadership of Belarus' largest social democratic party (of which he had never been a member) by internal intrigue-makers. Available information, as well as his collection of more well-known supporters, has shown that he relies on support from Moscow. The main effect of his political existence, so far, has been to sap strength from the united part of the opposition which stands behind Aleksandr Milinkevich in the so-called elections that will take place 19 March. In short, I do not think that Kozulin is meant to play a constructive role.

-

It seems that the common interpretation of this weeks events have been that the president and his surrounding are nervous, even loosing their mental balance. Strange statements by Lukashenko at the All-Belarusian Congress, about the 16th century publisher Francis Skaryna having lived in Saint Petersburg (which was founded only in the 18th century!), has strengthened this impression. Lukashenko is, however, known to use very skilled so-called political technologists and, as I wrote the other week, recently the Kremlin's top manipulator Gleb Pavlovskiy visited Minsk. It would certainly be irresponsible of any observer to take all events of this election campaign at face value.

-

The question that needs to be asked is whether the beating was deliberately staged to boast Kozulins popularity, partly to sap strength from Milinkevich and partly to establish a controllable opposition politician on the playing field for the longer run.

-

Could Kozulin have been taking a beating voluntarily? I think so. Since a strange incident at the candidate registration ceremony the other week, which also involved physical confrontation, Kozulin has been making a point of his training as a naval commando. So it seems reasonable to assume that he would be willing to endure this, if the gains were big enough.

-

Could Pavlichenko have beaten a presidential candidate, and then have made a statement about it to the press, without instructions from above? I find this hard to believe.

-

-

***

It is a bit hard to figure out where Kozulin is in the first picture below, but the man in green should be Pavlichenko. The second picture shows the man who opened fire on a car with Kozulin's supporters in it. In the evening of the same day, the released Kozulin (third picture) showed up at a street gathering organised for Milinkevich.

-

-

-

Never had she seen Belarusians so afraid

The official election campaign, for lack of better words, has begun. This week saw the first of two half-hour long televised addresses allowed each candidate. Interestingly, Moscow's pseudo-democratic puppet Aleksandr Kozulin stood out as the most radical opponent of Lukashenko, tearing a newspaper with the president's picture in it. The united opposition's Aleksandr Milinkevich stayed his thoughtful self.

-

Meanwhile, throughout the country house searches were conducted in opposition activist's homes, some of the legally allowed campaign materials for Milinkevich was confiscated by police, and four people were arrested by the KGB. They are now being held under suspicion for breaking the second part of article 193 of the Belarusian Criminal Code. Under this legislation, which is part of the politically repressive amendments introduced at the end of last year, they can face up to two years of imprisonment for participating in non-registered organisations. The organisations in question are Partnership, which conducted election monitoring during the parliamentary elections and referendum of 2004, and the Movement of Andrey Klimov, named after its imprisoned leader.

-

Yesterday, I received a phone call from Gunnel Arbin, a Swedish journalist who travelled to Belarus several times during the 1990s, and had just returned from her first visit in six years. She was under strong impression from what she had seen. Gunnel had met the lawyer of the detained activists, Vera Stremkovskaya, who told her how their parents wanted her to step away from the case because they are afraid that she is considered to controversial. This may not be necessary, however, because the KGB has now illegally denied Stremkovskaya to meet with her clients anyway.

-

But Gunnel had also found that the legal amendments passed last year are affecting not only the political sphere. In the ambition of writing an article on the social thematic, she had contacted the Belarusian branch of the Red Cross, which she wanted to ask about the situation for homeless people in Belarus. The humanitarian workers, however, told her that there are no homeless people in Belarus because the state provides so well for everyone. So instead, she managed to get in touch with a catholic parish, who were actually helping homeless people out. But the Catholics were only willing to tell Gunnel about this on the condition that she would not reveal their names in her article. The reason was another new article of the criminal code, the one about "discrediting" Belarus in foreign media, a crime which can also render imprisonment.

-

Finally, at the airport on her way home, Gunnel was temporarily detained by the border guards who questioned her and searched her luggage for some 45 minutes before two phone calls from the Swedish honorary consul, Lars Karman, finally got her off the hook and on the plane home.

-

Election campaign or not, Gunnel's final verdict on this trip to Belarus may be valid for a long time to come. She told me that never before had she seen people there so afraid.

-

-

***

PS. The main character of one of my earlier posts, Seppo Isotalo, recently left a brief comment there which you can find if you go back and look at the bottom of the page. Clicking his signature opens his website, containing among other things the old article shown below. The titel reads: "The fixer Seppo - trusts the KGB over the Supreme Commander"

-

Lenin inspires anti-opposition propaganda

I just finished reading Richard Pipes's The Russian Revolution. It is striking how the accusations directed by today's Belarusian regime (and lately also by the Russian) against its critics, that these are foreign agents paid to destabilise their societies, fits much better as a description of what Lenin actually did almost 90 years ago. Lenin's agenda was truly to destabilise his country, to crush the attempts at the time to give Russia a constitutional framework and replace it with Bolshevik lawlessness. And he did get foreign money, without which his success may not have been possible, from Germany. He also sold out his country's interests in World War I to this foreign power (which was the main reason why Berlin financed him).

-

Let us compare this historical reality with the current situation in Belarus. Yes, it is not much of a secret that the West does finance opposition forces in the country. But contrary to Lenin's agenda, the aim is to re-establish those legal restraints on raw power that have been abolished by Lukashenko's regime. And although this may be a hypothetical statement, there are probably few strings attached to this. Belarus will not be forced to compromise its national interests, like the Bolsheviks did when they signed the Brest-Litovsk peace treaty with Germany.

-

Unfortunately, though, Western backing of the opposition is not the only aspect here. Part of those who say that they share the agenda supported by the West, feel that they cannot get adequate support from it. So they seek it in Russia instead, and this make them more similar to Lenin in his lack of principle. I have heard well-respected Belarusian democrats say that they see the only hope of bringing about a power shift in striking a deal with Moscow, promising to give away the country's main enterprises. Personally, I think that the best possible product of a Russian-backed regime change would be so-called "directed democracy," which is the strange term with which today's Russia is often described, and which in practice has very little to do with real democracy. So, to the extent that the Belarusian opposition receives support from Moscow, the accusations made by the regime are more or less correct.

-

The regime, however, is silent about this. Instead, its accusations continue to be directed against the West. This week, the government newspaper Respublika repeated these accusations and also published a list of some thirty Western organisations allegedly backing the Belarusian revolutionaries. Four of the organisations were Swedish, three of them have a rather apolitical agenda and none of them would be likely to demand the sell-out of Belarusian state enterprises or any other compromise with the national interest.

-

The reasons that Lukashenko conceals the real threat to his country are simple. First, since Russia does not care the least about lack of democracy, there is no public criticism of Lukashenko's domestic policies that can be exploited into a public propaganda conflict. Second, to an unknown extent Russian "support" to the Belarusian opposition is probably co-ordinated with the infiltration efforts carried out by the Belarusian security services. Finally, "directed" democrats are likely seen as less threatening than those truly driven by principle, since the former are by nature more open to strike a deal.

-

By the way, the little remnants of directed democracy that are still left in Belarus reminded of themselves this week. All four candidates to the presidential elections in March were registered as such by the Central Election Commission, including the opposition representative Aleksandr Milinkevich. Now they have four weeks of highly restricted campaigning before them.

-

Also this week, the monthly solidarity day took place. This time, Belarusians were asked to take it a step further, not only lighting candles in their homes but joining a manifestation on Minsk's central October Square. About two hundred people showed up, twenty of which were arrested by police. A democratic revolution is still not in the air.

-

***

PS. On Wednesday the 16th, like last month, two solidarity manifestations for Belarus were held here in Stockholm. One, in the afternoon, involved parliamentarians from almost all the parties represented in parliament. The second, in the evening, was arranged by Belarusian immigrants.

-

What is Gleb Pavlovskiy doing in Minsk?

In Moscow, there are currently three people whom I would like to ask about their involvement in Belarusian politics. I rather doubt, however, that any of them would give me straight answers.
-

The first one is Valeriy Pavlov, a former general and member of the Belarusian parliament in the early 90s. In the last few years, Pavlov has found a niche for himself as a link between the Belarusian opposition and the Russian establishment. I think his first public appearance in that role was made in 2004 through no less than three interviews by a journalist of Ukrainian citizenry, Podolyak, who was subsequently very hastily deported even though he had a family in Minsk. Pavlov is also supposed to have given the imprisoned opposition politician Michail Marinich the US$ 90,000 which were confiscated when he was arrested at about the same time.

-

Pavlov seems to be a rough person. A friend of mine told me about an incident some ten years ago in which Pavlov, having arrived in a mid-sized town to settle a political problem, actually used a gun to intimidate a local official. Overall, he does not strike me as a democratic idealist although he poses as one, so it would be interesting to know what his real motivations are and what interests he may be serving in his work against Lukashenko.

-

The second person is Russian opposition politician Boris Nemtsov, of Russia's Union of Right Forces (SPS), who in later years have often been heard complaining that Lukashenko will not give up Belarus' gas transit company to Russia. Nemtsov and SPS hold long-standing ties to Belarus' United Civil Party (UCP), and since this past fall they claim to be financing the main Belarusian opposition newspaper, Narodnaya Volya. If SPS's agenda is to support the united part of the opposition (including its partners in the UCP) and its presidential candidate Aleksandr Milinkevich, however, it would be interesting to know why Narodnaya Volya is now taking a clear stand for the Kremlin-backed Aleksandr Kozulin. It would also be interesting to know why Nemtsov is now calling for an election boycott in Belarus, thereby in effect undermining Milinkevich's position.

-

It seems to me that Nemtsov is part of the utterly cynical Russian political landscape, where opposition to the Kremlin is a relative matter, and where few pacts are too unholy to make. So it would be interesting to know what he hopes to achieve by his active interest in Belarusian matters.

-

Finally, this week Minsk was visited by the notorious Gleb Pavlovskiy, the Kremlin's own favourite "political technologist." Pavlovskiy's Foundation for Effective Politics (FEP) is sort of a hybrid between a Western-style PR agency and the KGB, and is considered the most skilful organisation in planning typically dirty post-Soviet election campaigns. Whether Pavlovskiy visited Minsk only to observe the election campaign, or whether he is actively involved in this campaign, would also be interesting to know.

-

***

PS. For anyone in Stockholm, I would like to mention that there will be a solidarity manifestation for Belarus at Norrmalmstorg square on Thursday 16 February at 15.30 hrs, like there was one last month.

-

A wall to the West, penetration from the East

This week has confirmed two things that I have long believed but not been sure about.

The first one is that I am still forbidden to enter Belarus. It has now been almost two years since I tried to go there last time, in February 2004. After I had attended the by-elections to the local council of the town Belooziorsk a few months earlier, I had found out that a local journalist had been sued for defamation over a discussion at a polling station that I had also taken part in. Since I did not think she had done anything wrong, I sent a written statement to the court and said that I was prepared to come there to give my version of events. Some weeks later, I received an official letter by ordinary mail, telling me to appear as a witness in the proceedings.

I got an invitation and applied for a visa at the Belarusian embassy here in Stockholm. I got the visa, and the next day I spent travelling via Vienna to Minsk. At the international airport, the border guards told me that I was forbidden to enter the Republic of Belarus, changed my return ticket, and forced me to get on the same plane back again.

I never got an explanation. The Swedish Ministry of Foreign Affairs asked, both in Minsk and with the embassy in Stockholm, but got not response. A subsequent letter from me to the Belarusian ambassador was also ignored.

So ever since then I have not really been sure about my status, but now I am. A week and a half ago I paid the fee of 650 kronor (a bit over 80 USD) and handed in my passport along with a visa application at the embassy. This Thursday I returned there.

"Here is your passport," said the consular officer.

I took it and looked at him for a brief moment but he did not say anything. I opened it to start going through the pages.

"There is no visa in it," he said.

I was not going to get my money back. I was not going to get any explanation of why I had been denied a visa. I was not going to be told whether it would make sense or not to apply again later. Unfortunately, he said.

Well, at least now I know that I have not been missing any opportunities during the last two years. And at least they had the courtesy not to have me going all the way to Minsk's international airport to find out about it.

The second thing that was confirmed to me is that Aleksandr Kozulin, the other allegedly democratic presidential candidate besides Aleksandr Milinkevich, is working for Moscow. I have never believed in Kozulin's democratic credentials, but the mystery to me has been whether he is being run by the Belarusian or the Russian regime. I was inclined to believe the latter, and this week I felt certain about it when his election team was joined by Valeriy Frolov.

Frolov, a former army general and member of parliament, became known as a bold opposition politician a few years ago with the launching of the parliamentary group Respublika. Frolov is one of the most openly pro-Russian opposition politicians, and did not even make a secret of the group's meetings with the Russian security and intelligence services during their trips to Moscow.

As for the up-coming election, both Frolov and another member of Respublika, Sergey Skrebets (who is in jail), first positioned themselves as potential candidates. Recently, Skrebets pulled out and said he supported Kozulin. When Frolov did the same this week, my doubts left me.

I can not help feeling a bit sorry about this. I have met Skrebets, and he seems a good enough person. Frolov is also said to be sympathetic.

Yet they both allow themselves to be used in the games of Belarus' chauvinist neighbour.

Four people are left in Belarus' election process

The first stage of the Belarusian presidential election is now over. For four weeks, the initiative groups of potential candidates have collected signatures for their support, of which a minimum of 100,000 is required. As was generally expected, four people have submitted more than the required amount.

The first one, of course, is president Lukashenko. A reported 1,905,631 citizens are supposed

How much solidarity is there - there and here?

-

This past Monday was the 16th, the monthly day of Belarusian solidarity. I am not sure what to think about this event. Two months ago, after the second solidarity day in November, I was a bit disappointed. All those within Belarus I had spoken with, and all whom they had spoken with, were also a bit disappointed. Even though they themselves had lit a candle in their windows, they had not seen others do the same, and so the mirror that was supposed to show that there were many of them showed instead that they were few.

-

The initiators of this action, on the other hand, announced that they had monitored it and concluded that at least 300 000 people had taken part. Since Belarus has a population of about ten million, this should mean that one in thirty homes would have had a candle burning in its window. I found this hard to believe. But then, recently, I laid eyes upon the latest report from the independent polling research institute NISEPI, which I usually trust, and which confirmed that 3,3 percent of the population had participated in November's candle-lighting.

-

So now I am not sure anymore. Perhaps the spirit of solidarity is alive in Belarus, perhaps not. Also, I have little idea of how many people have participated after that, in December and January. Figures are not reported, so I assume there is no monitoring going on any longer.

-

In Sweden, solidarity day was mentioned in a televised speech by our foreign minister, talking at the annual conference on security policy. She spoke mostly about Africa, about development, and about other issues that do not really have much to do with our own national security, since the Swedish government seems blissfully unaware of any threats to this. But she did mention Belarus, and the fact that a manifestation would take place later the same day on Norrmalmstorg square in central Stockholm, for which I felt somewhat grateful.

-

A few hours later, I was on the square, microphone in my hand, trying to pronounce my pre-written speech as clear as I could although a bitter cold was starting to get hold of me. As I was about to read out the fifth paragraph I quickly glanced to my left where another member of the government, the minister of development aid, was standing. I wanted her to hear this, because, in the televised speech, her colleague had repeated the credo that Sweden's solidarity with Belarus is best shown by maintaining broad contacts, and by persuading Europe to do the same. Broad contacts, in this context, means working with the country's so called vertical of power.

-

"...Sweden should also stop co-operating with Lukashenko's state apparatus," I said into the microphone. "Because the dictator's henchmen are everywhere in the administration. On his orders they rig elections, make sure that undesirable people are sacked from their jobs, and generally behave like swine. Lukashenko's bureaucrats are among the worst bribe-takers in Europe, this was shown by the organisation Transparency International in their latest corruption survey. Why should Sweden co-operate with such people? No, ban them from coming here instead, I say..."

-

The minister was busy talking to someone, and not listening. I doubt she would have been impressed, though. Our social-democratic government seems unaware of any other means than constructive dialogue to handle problems, sometimes leaving no room whatsoever for moral principle. For instance, this weekend a platoon from the Russian 138 mechanised rifle brigade, known to have committed war crimes in Chechnya, is conducting a joint exercise with my old regiment in the north of Sweden as part of a "democracy project."

-

I do not know if such things happen out of cynicism or naivety. They make me as uncertain about Swedish solidarity that I am about solidarity in Belarus.

-

PS. The picture above is from Warsaw, where 300 people gathered in a solidarity day manifestation.